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TAP TIMES -23- OCTOBER 2022
DRAM market (from 22) • Nanya’s August 2022 DRAM sales, when
expressed in U.S. dollars, were down 53%
The market collapse was steep and swift from its March DRAM sales.
— so much so that July’s DRAM market
was about half the size it was in May (Fig- • Kyung Kye-hyun, Samsung’s co-CEO and
ure page 22). head of its semiconductor unit said, “The
second half of this year looks bad, and
Concern over inflation as of now, next year doesn’t really seem
Concern over soaring inflation and reces- to show a clear momentum for much im-
sion has cut into consumer spending on provement.
new smartphones, computers, TVs, and
other electronic goods. Hard and fast
Industry veterans know that when the
In turn, system manufacturers have scaled DRAM market starts on a cyclical down-
back new DRAM orders, citing the need to turn, it usually falls hard and fast.
burn through existing inventory that they
have amassed. Figure 2 below shows several DRAM mar-
ket collapses since the year 2000. Each
The sharp decline in DRAM sales seen in downturn spanned at least 5 quarters and
June and July might have been dismissed in each case, resulted in the DRAM market
as a short-term anomaly had it not been falling by at least 41%.
for comments from DRAM suppliers about
the developing market. For example: Given the current outlook, IC Insights
estimates the DRAM market will be 38%
• Micron guided fiscal 4Q sales results smaller in 3Q22 than when it last peaked
(ending August) of -21%. Micron is in 3Q21.
scheduled to report its fourth quarter and
full-year sales results on September 29, Moreover, IC Insights also anticipates
2022. Their results will likely set the tone more downside for the DRAM market
for the rest of the industry for the balance through 4Q22 and into early next year.
of this year. icinsights.com
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