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JANUARY 2023
TAP TIMES -32-

YMTC (from 31) Correspondingly, the sufficiency ratio of
the whole NAND Flash market for the en-
the critical equipment if the U.S. govern- tire 2023 has been revised to 2.3% from
ment opts to broaden the scope of its ex- the original projection of 3.6%.
port control rules. For instance, there is a
likelihood that Dutch and Japanese equip- Bit growth
ment providers will join the U.S. sanction Besides the moderation in supply bit
regime and stop selling DUV immersion growth, TrendForce is also optimistic that
lithography systems to Chinese customers.
procurements will pick up for enterprise
SSDs thanks to the price elasticity of de-
Process transition mand.
TrendForce notes that by 2024, YMTC’s
competitors will have transitioned to the
2XX-L generation for their primary 3D
NAND processes.

They might even start manufacturing
NAND Flash products that have a layer
count that is approaching the 300 thresh-
old.

Conversely, YMTC will have gradually lost This is YMTC’s Fab 2. The company, says TrendForce, will be se-
its cost competitiveness due to technologi- verely constrained in its products due to its addition to the U.S.
Entity List. (YMTC)
cal stagnation, and the erosion of its mar-
ket share will continue. Moreover, TrendForce is not ruling out the
possibility that the overall NAND Flash
To avoid this fate, YMTC will have to find supply will start to tighten in 2H23. Elec-
ways to get delisted. TrendForce is also tronics brands (OEMs) could begin ramp-
not ruling out other alternative paths for ing up NAND Flash procurements ahead of
YMTC as well. time in 2Q23.

For instance, the company can go back to The rising demand, in turn, could lead to
manufacturing 2D NAND Flash, or it can a stabilization of NAND Flash prices dur-
transform into a supplier for logic ICs that ing 2Q23 and an eventual rebound in the
are made with mature process technolo- overall NAND Flash ASP starting in 3Q23.
gies. trendforce.com

Supply-demand dynamics ADVERTISERS
The supply-demand dynamics of the NAND
Flash market Is Now Expected to Improve Advanced Interconnections advanced.com
in 2H23 and Thereby Help Stabilize Overall Contech Solutions contechsolutions.com
e-tec.com
E-tec
NAND Flash ASP HCD Corp. hcdcorp.com
LEENO Industrial leeno.com
Since YMTC’s YoY supply bit growth rate MCT Worldwide mctint.com
mirrorsemi.com
Mirror Semiconductor
for 2023 has been drastically revised to OKins Electronics okinsglobal.com
negative 7%, the YoY growth rate of the Signal Integrity signalin.com
total NAND Flash supply bits in the same TAP TIMES taptimes.com
testconx.org
TestConX
year has been lowered as well to 20.2%. TopLine topline.tv