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TAP TIMES -38- AUGUST 2022

Is Micron the canary
in the coal mine?

SCOTTSDALE, Arizona —Early warning
signs of a turning point in the semi-
conductor industry cycle are becoming
more evident.

Canary in a Coal Mine: Something that
acts as an indicator and early warn-
ing of possible adverse conditions or
danger.
conductor companies report their top line
On June 30, 2022, Micron, the third larg- revenues on a monthly schedule with
est memory supplier in the world, reported more financial details described in their
its fiscal 3Q results that ended in May. quarterly reports.
These results were very strong, with the
company posting sales of $8.6 billion, up Change of direction?
11% from the previous quarter and 19% Often, these monthly results provide an
higher than one-year earlier. early indicator of a possible change in
direction in the semiconductor market, up
or down.
However, the guidance for its fiscal 4Q
sales ending in August was the epitome of
a “canary in a coal mine” moment.

$7.2 billion sales guidance
As reported, Micron’s guidance for its fis-
cal 4Q is for sales of $7.2 billion, ± $400
million. At this mid-point, the company is
expecting its fiscal 4Q/3Q sales to plum-
met 17%!

This steep decline in its fiscal 4Q includes
July and August, two of the three months
in calendar year 3Q, which, due to the
seasonality of the semiconductor industry,
is typically the strongest growth quarter of
the year.

It currently appears that Micron has given
us an early warning that the 3Q22 memo-
ry market will be extremely weak.
The figure shows the June/May sales re-
While the vast majority of semiconductor sults of the top-10 Taiwanese semiconduc-
suppliers only report their sales results on tor suppliers. In total, these 10 compan-
a quarterly basis, many of Taiwan’s semi next page