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Notebook industry remains cautious amid tariff negotiations
TAIPEI, Taiwan — TrendForce’s latest
research reveals that although the
U.S. has granted a 90-day grace
period before implementing reciprocal
tariff s—off ering temporary relief
for notebook brands—the broader
market remains clouded by policy and
economic uncertainty.
Brands began front-loading inventory in
late 2024, pushing Q4 shipment growth
to 5.1%, with 1Q25 seeing a 7.2% Y/Y
increase.
Revised forecast
However, given persistent economic
weakness and rising tariff risks,
TrendForce has revised the full-year 2025
notebook brand shipment growth forecast
downward from 3.6% to just 1.4%.
Materials market (from 16)
All semiconductor materials segments,
except for silicon and silicon-on-insulator
(SOI), registered year-on-year increases.
The demand for silicon, particularly in
the trailing-edge segment, remained
weak in 2024 as the industry continued
to work through excess inventory, result-
ing in a 7.1% decline in silicon revenue.
semi.org
semi.org
JUNE 2025
The U.S. currently maintains a 0% tariff
on notebooks imported from Southeast
Asia, while imposing a 20% import duty
on those from China.
This discrepancy has driven brands to
accelerate shipments from Vietnam,
Thailand and other regional hubs.
U.S.-based brands, having invested early
in Southeast Asia, enjoy greater fl exibility
and are better positioned to replenish
North American inventory during the 90-
day exemption.
In contrast, non-U.S. brands, whose
Southeast Asian supply chains are still
under development, face limited short-
term adaptability.
Risk of Annual Decline
The U.S. remains the world’s largest
single notebook market, accounting for
approximately 30% of global demand.
Although the short-term tariff delay
is helping brands sustain shipments,
TrendForce expects a strong likelihood of
retail price increases that may suppress
both consumer and commercial upgrade
cycles.
Should China retaliate with tariff s on U.S.
key components, the resulting higher
production costs could force brands to
adopt more conservative production and
procurement strategies.
Brands are closely monitoring the
progress of U.S. trade negotiations with
other countries.
If tariff s on imports from Southeast Asia
are eventually capped at 10–20%, it could
alleviate cost pressures and stabilize
market sentiment. trendforce.com